Steer’s analysis of new data indicates rail passenger demand has reached "new normal"

Our analysis of the latest Estimates of Station Usage data, published by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), reveals that rail passenger numbers across Great Britain have likely stabilised to a "new normal" of 1.4 billion journeys per year. This marks a 16% increase compared to 2023 and reflects a significant step in post-pandemic recovery. 

The data, released on 20 November 2024 and produced by Steer for the ORR for over a decade, is derived from ticket sales and station entry and exit records. Total journeys as derived from the ORR's Estimates of Station Usage (1.4 billion) are lower than the journeys published in passenger rail usage (1.6 billion) as the latter takes into account the number of legs of a journey. 

Steer’s experts have analysed six years’ worth of data from the Origin-Destination Matrix to understand the underlying trends in rail passenger demand and assess if the market for rail travel is likely to change further in the near future. 

A closer look at growth rates by flow (which measures how passenger numbers vary between origin and destination stations) gives a clearer understanding of whether passenger demand has stabilised at a different level compared to pre-Covid patterns. 

Key highlights from our analysis: 

• Stabilisation after sharp fluctuations: While rail demand grew by 16% in 2024, this is slower than the recovery seen in 2022 and 2023. 
• Changing travel patterns: Pre-pandemic, year-on-year growth averaged 3% across flows. Post-pandemic recovery rates varied widely, driven by market shifts. 
• Journeys made within London drove much of the demand increase last year: The opening of the Elizabeth Line has contributed substantially to this recovery, with a 21% year-on-year rise in journeys within the London Travelcard Area. 
• Commuter trips plateau: Shorter trips outside London and the Southeast to London market have levelled off at 80% and 79% of 2019 demand, respectively, underlining the lasting impact of hybrid work practices. 

Steer Associate Mark Brownie commented: 

"Further analysis of the 1.4 billion journeys recorded this year demonstrates that rail demand is stabilising after several years of sharp fluctuations. While some passenger segments, like long-distance travel, are approaching full recovery, others, particularly commuter markets, are showing lasting shifts in behaviour. Our analysis suggests that this stabilised demand represents a ‘new normal’ for the GB rail sector, and organisations must adapt their future strategies to these patterns. Steer has produced a storyboard outlining our findings, demonstrating the evolution of markets which now underpin the passenger railway." 

Steer has created an interactive summary to illustrate these findings and their implications for transport strategy. Access this here. 

Explore the full Estimates of Station Usage dataset on the ORR website.