Shining a light on UK rail fares

It is now possible to access industry data for rail fares in Great Britain. But what insights can this newly available data provide?

The price of train tickets often makes the headlines in Britain, especially at the start of each calendar year when fare rises are implemented. With increasing political interest in the cost of living and the role privatised utility companies play in the UK, it is likely that this issue will continue to attract interest as we approach the general election in 2015. Traditionally the debate has been framed by ‘extortionate’ season ticket fares, which are selectively published by the media and contrasted unfavourably with fares in other European countries. But is it fair to use these headline numbers to shape the debate?

Thanks to the government’s transparency agenda, it is now possible to shed more light and granularity on this complex issue. In January 2013 the Association of Train operating Companies (ATOC) started publishing data from the national fares database and made this data available to registered users for no charge. Whilst this data is not exactly provided in the most user-friendly format, we have been able to build applications to interrogate it. We are now able, in a matter of seconds, to run queries to identify all available fares for thousands of origin-destination combinations and present our results as heat maps.

To demonstrate the power of this data, we have used these applications to run queries on season tickets in South East England, with striking results. Our analysis suggests that while season ticket fares tend to increase with distance from London, there are significant differences in the rate of increase between different operators and routes. For example, an annual season ticket from Uckfield to London Bridge (74 kilometres and 75 minutes) costs £2,748, whilst an annual season ticket to the same destination from neighbouring Lewes (79 kilometres/70 minutes) costs over 50% more at £4,304.

The picture becomes still more interesting when this data is combined with mortgage costs, which we have estimated using house price data and assumptions for interest rates and deposits. Analysis of combined fare and mortgage payments suggests that the benefits of more affordable house prices (and cheaper mortgages) available outside London may, in some cases, be offset by higher commuting costs. This data has also exposed significant variations in the differences between peak and off-peak fares and the ratio of season ticket to single ticket prices.

These insights are some of our earliest findings and, as new data is released over time, we hope to track trends in the fares market to help us better understand its dynamics. Whether this can help cool the fares debate, however, remains to be seen.

An interactive heat map displaying the most recent data can be found below:

Notes:

• This project was delivered and funded by Steer Davies Gleave's Research and Innovation Programme.
• Fares data was provided by Rail Settlement Plan and the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC).
• House Price data provided by Land Registry under the Open Government Licence.
• Heatmaps were provided by www.openheatmap.com.
• The house price used is the average house price for the area surrounding each station, as determined by postcode areas.
• Mortgage calculations assume a deposit of £65,000, an interest rate of 4.5% and a term of 25 years.
• Season tickets are annual season tickets to (and including) London Zones 1-6 (standard class).
• The combined cost assumes one London commuter per household and combines the monthly mortgage payment with the season ticket cost (pro-rated to a monthly cost).